Revenue +18%. Azure +40%. Consensus: Strong Buy. The stock still fell as much as 35%.
When fundamentals improve and price does not listen
All-time high on Oct 28, 2025: $538.66. Over the next eight months the business improved — revenue +18%, cloud +29%, Azure +40%, and contracted backlog of $627 billion, nearly twice the prior year. Analyst consensus never left Strong Buy.
Yet the stock fell as much as 35% from its high. More than one trillion dollars in market value evaporated. It was the worst start to a year since 2000.
The market was not disputing quality. It was pricing roughly $190 billion in capex and the pressure this creates in free cash flow before becoming earnings.
That was not in the fundamentals spreadsheet. It was in price.Window: Oct 28, 2025 – Jun 25, 2026 · Static example · Jul 2026 data